Germany Expects Results, Merkel

For the first time since the beginning of the most recent euro crisis, Merkel's CDU/CSU fraction looks on the verge of being overtaken in the polls. The SPD, buoyed by their romping success in the North Rhine-Westphalia state elections have hit 30%, just two points behind their centre-right rivals.

It's been a rough patch for the German Chancellor, and the strain is reportedly beginning to show. She often looks tired or jetlagged, and she shocked* parts of her own party and the political establishment by firing Norbert Röttgen, her Environment Minister, for his poor performance in the NRW elections. Her fate now rests on her ability to both force through her German-style reforms abroad and get her party in line at home. The German electorate is putting Merkel’s party on notice - there are consequences for failure.

The SPD and Greens are still some distance from offering a suitable alternative, and can’t scrape together a majority right now. The outcome of a snap election would likely leave Germany with an SPD/CDU 'grand coalition' with the CDU at the head, just like in 2005. She’s got a bit of breathing room.

Perhaps she should use that breathing room to get some sleep...

*It’s pretty difficult to get fired for anything in Germany – particularly so in politics. This is only the second time ever that a cabinet minister has been thrown out of their post – the first was this guy...

A principled suicide

The FDP’s final act?

Yesterday, the government in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW) collapsed; a minority SPD-Green government failed to pass the budget for the coming year. While the FDP opposed the it in theory – based on continued deficit spending – the expectation was that they would merely abstain. To the surprise of most observers, they voted against and forced new elections.

You see, in NRW – as well as the rest of the country – the FDP’s polling numbers don’t look good. Not good at all. They’re polling 2-3%, under the level to even be represented in the state parliament. It was not in the FDP’s interest to bring down the government: they risk political annihilation.

If they fail to have representation in Germany’s most populous state, there will be huge implications on a national level. The CDU have already been making policy overtures to the Greens – driven both by the poll numbers and increasingly erratic behaviour of the FDP leadership.

Unless something is done to change their fortunes, this could be the beginning of a real electoral death spiral.

Classical liberalism is on life support in Germany – the prognosis does not look good.