For
the first time since the beginning of the most recent euro crisis, Merkel's CDU/CSU
fraction looks on the verge of being overtaken in the polls. The SPD,
buoyed by their romping success in the North Rhine-Westphalia state elections
have hit 30%, just two points behind their centre-right rivals.
It's
been a rough patch for the German Chancellor, and the strain is reportedly
beginning to show. She often looks tired or jetlagged, and she shocked* parts
of her own party and the political establishment by firing Norbert Röttgen, her
Environment Minister, for his poor performance in the NRW elections. Her fate
now rests on her ability to both force through her German-style reforms abroad and
get her party in line at home. The German electorate is putting Merkel’s party
on notice - there are consequences for
failure.
The SPD and Greens
are still some distance from offering a suitable alternative, and can’t scrape
together a majority right now. The outcome of a snap election would likely
leave Germany with an SPD/CDU 'grand coalition' with the CDU at the head, just
like in 2005. She’s got a bit of breathing room.
Perhaps
she should use that breathing room to get some sleep...
*It’s pretty difficult to get fired for
anything in Germany – particularly so in politics. This is only the second time
ever that a cabinet minister has been thrown out of their post – the first was
this guy...
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