It's a SPD/Green win in Lower Saxony

It's as close as you can get: with a single seat advantage, SPD/Green has emerged as the single largest coalition grouping in Lower Saxony. Stephan Weil (SPD) has confirmed that he will try to form a government with the Greens - and replace David McAllister as Prime Minister.

What does this mean nationally?

It's been an uncomfortable night for most of the main parties - especially with federal elections coming in September. The SPD will note that their victory - despite an early lead - was less than convincing. Peer Steinbrück (SPD candidate for Chancellor) and his repeated missteps have hardly helped.

The CDU will be particularly frustrated. They had strong support in the polls and a popular leader in David McAllister, relative to the SPD candidate. The collapse in their favoured coalition party's support meant this was not enough to translate into victory. A problem that Angela Merkel faces on a national level.

The FDP had a bittersweet night. With nearly 10% of the vote, it was a record for the party in Lower Saxony. However, polling shows that 80% of their voters this time around identified as CDU supporters. They'd voted FDP for fear that the CDU's favoured partner would crash out of parliament - and without this help, that's precisely what would have happened.

Only the Greens can be counted as a straightforward winner. They've improved substantially on their 2008 performance - if this is repeated on a national level, they'll be a serious coalition partner for either of the SPD or CDU.

Merkel and McAllister

This election result is a threat to Merkel's position within the CDU, albeit marginally. McAllister is now free to take his popularity to the national level and - while there is no suggestion that a challenge is coming - as and when things start going downhill for Frau Merkel, David McAllister will be one of several waiting in the wings.

A German Chancellor with a Scottish father - what would the UK papers would make of that...

It’s Neck and Neck for Lower Saxony

The first exit polls for the Lower Saxony state parliament are too close to call. Despite the incumbent David McAllister's personal popularity, the CDU’s coalition partner FDP has been haemorrhaging support – even looking likely to drop out of the parliament entirely, depriving the CDU of a workable coalition partner and power.

Tactical Voting

However, in the last few days, the polls started to turn in the FDP’s favour. The ZDF (German TV) exit polls are are forecasting a record 9.5% for the FDP and a disappointing 37% for the CDU. The reason for this surprising turn of events seems to be tactical voting - according to the ZDF exit poll, 80% of FDP voters consider themselves CDU supporters.

Had the FDP not received support from CDU voters, they would have not achieved the 5% hurdle to enter the state parliament. Not encouraging for the upcoming national election.

Undecided

Current estimates show the CDU/FDP and SPD/Green running neck and neck – 73 seats for each possible coalition. ‘Overhang’ seats could decide the election. (see my explanation here – a similar system to the Bundestag elections is used on state level)

Exit Polls, at 6PM German time, via ZDF

CDU 37.0%
SPD 33.0%
Green 13.5%
FDP 9.6%
Left 3.0%

Why the Germans won’t save Europe... but might redraw their borders.

Why can’t the Germans just fix everything? was the cry last week – from Paris to London to Washington. If only the ECB was more liberal with its monetary policy, if only we had Eurobonds – then we’d be able to put this whole sorry business to bed.

After all, the Germans have had more experience than most with transfer unions, having taken in communist East Germany. Even now, billions of euros are being transferred eastwards every year. The practice is controversial – money is being transferred on a purely geographical basis, with poor western regions sending money east, despite suffering high unemployment and decades of underinvestment.

So, if the Germans were willing to pay eye-watering sums thorough this scheme for reunification, why not a diet version for their other pet project, Europe? I asked this question to David McAllister, CDU Prime Minister of Lower Saxony* as he visited Edinburgh a couple of days ago.

His answer was surprisingly straightforward: There is simply no support for that from the German electorate.

The exact same reason that the UK isn’t clamouring to send money.

Europe is certainly dear to Germany’s heart – but he said that the EU is a system of ‘give and take’. Add to that a country embittered by the behaviour of the Greeks – McAllister cited the example of Germany’s retirement age still being higher than Greece – and you don’t have the recipe for an unconditional transfer of funds.

He also noted that various Eastern European Baltic states had gone through much hardship reforming their economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union without much support. While he didn’t confront the issue directly, the implied question was: Why should the Greeks be bailed out for their own mistakes, when the Baltic states barely got any help for a disaster that wasn’t their fault?

He then spoke about the current arrangements within Germany, the ‘Solidarity Pact II’ that will expire in 2019. He suggested that while Germany is a proud federal nation, the number of states is by no means fixed. A new financial settlement post 2019 may mean that borders will be re-drawn...

He didn’t want Bremen (a highly indebted city state enclave within Lower Saxony), though: “We can’t afford them”.

* And with that, I present the second in my multi-part series: Photos of me posing with mid-level regional German politicians. McAllister is hardly mid-level, but there’s an election coming in January. We’ll see what happens...

That’s me and David McAllister (CDU), Prime Minister of Lower Saxony.