It's as close as you can get: with a single seat advantage, SPD/Green has emerged as the single largest coalition grouping in Lower Saxony. Stephan Weil (SPD) has confirmed that he will try to form a government with the Greens - and replace David McAllister as Prime Minister.
What does this mean nationally?
It's been an uncomfortable night for most of the main parties - especially with federal elections coming in September. The SPD will note that their victory - despite an early lead - was less than convincing. Peer Steinbrück (SPD candidate for Chancellor) and his repeated missteps have hardly helped.
The CDU will be particularly frustrated. They had strong support in the polls and a popular leader in David McAllister, relative to the SPD candidate. The collapse in their favoured coalition party's support meant this was not enough to translate into victory. A problem that Angela Merkel faces on a national level.
The FDP had a bittersweet night. With nearly 10% of the vote, it was a record for the party in Lower Saxony. However, polling shows that 80% of their voters this time around identified as CDU supporters. They'd voted FDP for fear that the CDU's favoured partner would crash out of parliament - and without this help, that's precisely what would have happened.
Only the Greens can be counted as a straightforward winner. They've improved substantially on their 2008 performance - if this is repeated on a national level, they'll be a serious coalition partner for either of the SPD or CDU.
Merkel and McAllister
This election result is a threat to Merkel's position within the CDU, albeit marginally. McAllister is now free to take his popularity to the national level and - while there is no suggestion that a challenge is coming - as and when things start going downhill for Frau Merkel, David McAllister will be one of several waiting in the wings.
A German Chancellor with a Scottish father - what would the UK papers would make of that...
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