From Merkozy to merde

Yesterday was not a good day for Angela Merkel. Greece, France and the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein all went to the polls – and Merkel’s team took a drubbing in each.

Aside from the fact that Merkel’s grand plan to nurse the euro back to health through a strict regiment of austerity and fiscal discipline seems to be in tatters, her own voters have thrown a banana skin. Merkel’s CDU appears to have lost power in Schleswig-Holstein – the SPD, Greens and a local Danish minority party are on course to form a state government.

But that’s not Merkel’s biggest problem. Her coalition partner FDP beat most expectations and remained in the state parliament, and they hope this will reenergise the party nationally and in government. In order to do that, however, they’re going to have to make a free-market liberal mark on policy.

A bellicose FDP would leave Merkel trapped between her European partners demanding less austerity and her newly reinvigorated coalition partners demanding more. The Queen of Compromise has already misstepped by openly campaigning against France’s Hollande – how she can negotiate a new euro deal that satisfies everyone is yet to be seen.

She hoped for more Merkozy – she might end up with a pile of merde. 

Merkel needs a miracle

Never in the post war period has a German chancellor so openly interfered in the affairs of a neighbouring country. Angela Merkel has announced that she is openly supporting Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential election. She will give a joint interview with Sarkozy tonight to both French and German television and has, thus far, refused multiple invitations to meet Sarkozy’s socialist challenger – and leader in the polls – François Hollande.

It’s such a foolhardy idea, I find it difficult to know where to begin.

There is a very good reason why politicians don’t involve themselves in the elections of other countries: there’s not much chance of it ending well.  Setting aside the fact that electorates don’t particularly appreciate being told how to vote by a foreign power*, Merkel seems to be backing a losing horse. Sarkozy is openly talking of losing the election and leaving politics. If that were to happen, her actions would mean Merkel would not only lose an ally – but also gain an enemy.

Admittedly, even without this intervention a Hollande presidency would have been a substantial setback to Merkel – he is no great supporter of austerity. Merkel needs to stay the course if the euro and, by extension, her chancellorship is to survive. But surely it would have been a better idea to sit tight, wait and hope for either a political miracle and another Sarkozy term – or for Hollande to change his tune once in office, once the bluster of the campaign subsides.

Merkel’s desperation could mean all she can hope for is a miracle.

*I know nothing about French politics, but apparently the French electorate are already fed up with comparisons to Germany. At least according to the German press...