The curse of Merkel

Angela Merkel's CDU has had an amazing night. Current projections have the CDU/CSU just short of an absolute majority - unheard of in modern German national politics. She remains German chancellor and the 8%+ increase in the Union's vote is a clear vote of confidence.

That said, Merkel's current and favoured coalition partner crashed out of parliament - the FPD's worst ever performance. 

If Merkel's Union is unable to manage an absolute majority, the next week will be dominated by behind the scenes negotiations and dealmaking to form a functioning coalition government. Both the SPD and Greens, possible coalition partners, had a disappointing night and could serve as junior partners to Merkel over the next parliament. 

But after a 2009 election result that saw the then-junior coalition partner SPD score their worst post-war result followed by today's similar result for the FDP - no party can be blamed for having reservations to join a third Merkel government. 

Steinbrück? He's no alternative for Germany.

At what might seem a glacial pace, the German federal elections slide ever closer. Once again, the Euro has become the focus with Cyprus' near collapse and the announcement of a new euroskeptic party closer to home.

The Alternative für Deutschland has sought for a great deal of attention around Europe. Is this a sign that Germany is losing faith in the grand European Project? 

No.

While a great deal of hot air has been produced around this (not yet officially founded, that happens tomorrow) party - it's difficult to ignore the profile of its supporters: cantankerous old men with a whiff of the far-right. Despite their name, they haven't even begun to elucidate how they would extract Germany from the European quagmire*, let alone any details of a broader programme.

Looking at the polls, it's business as usual. Angela Merkel continues to be the most popular politician in Germany. Her challenger, Peer Steinbrück, is struggling to keep a majority of his own party behind him. The Social Democrats are still doing better that Steinbrück personally, but would not be able to form a government unless their support does not dramatically increase.

*It's an odd quagmire, this. A quagmire where you're stuck with a record-breaking economic output, some of the lowest unemployment rates in modern history,  and suffering the pain of arguably some of healthiest government finances in the world. Poor them.