Hunting Wulff

German President Christian Wulff’s problems just won’t go away – the whiff of impropriety has followed him from one public appearance to the next. A seemingly constant flow of new revelations and a media baying for his blood have ensured Wulff stays in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Despite this, few frontline opposition politicians wanted to twist the knife. But that’s starting to change...

What took them so long?

Up until very recently, there was little to gain from Wulff leaving office – after all, the president is a largely ceremonial and nominally apolitical position. But Wulff was seen as Merkel’s choice (as a former member of her party, the CDU) and the opposition were well advised to make hay, implicitly linking the party on a national and local level to his apparent impropriety and ham-fisted defence. Even if he did resign, the CDU and allies hold a razor-thin majority in the Bundesversammlung (the body that elects the president) – so, if held now, Merkel’s candidate would have a reasonable chance of winning a new presidential poll*.

But that will change by the end of May. By then, Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein will have gone to the polls. The Bundesversammlung is made up of an even split of representatives of the states and Bundestag, the expected gains of the SPD and Greens could tip the balance (at the governing CDU/FDP’s expense). While they would still be unable to push through their candidate – they would have a somewhat stronger hand in selecting a ‘unity’ candidate.

The perfect attack

A new president could be the first step in solving the opposition SPD and Green’s problem: How to undermine Merkel without finding themselves on the wrong side of popular opinion. Her work on the European financial crisis has earned her plaudits from across the political spectrum – only CDU ministers are perceived to be achieving anything in government, arguably the only reason why it hasn’t already collapsed. Voters would punish the opposition if they are obstructionist for the sake of it – hence their problem.

An attack on the president, however, is not a direct attack on Merkel – but if Wulff goes despite her continued support and replaced by a compromise candidate, it begins to undermine her credibility.  For the SPD and Greens, every little helps.

Sitting it out

Wulff, however, is sticking to his guns. He won’t go unless there is truly a smoking gun... His problem is: the opposition and the media won’t rest until they find one.

*Though that’s certainly not a given – it’s a secret ballot, and in 2010 Wulff himself gained fewer votes than the CDU/FDP block were allocated.